A neutral approach effective in navigating complex geopolitical landscapes

During his visit to Japan in August 2025, President Cyril Ramaphosa made an important foreign policy statement. As he sought to diversify South Africa’s trade relations amid threats from US President Donald Trump, Ramaphosa said South Africa didn’t choose sides between Japan and China; it loved both countries and embraced economic ties with them.

Japan and China occasionally rub each other the wrong way. Their mistrust dates to the Japanese invasion of China in 1937. Yet South Africa’s decision to slice through their frosty relations and carve its own path suggests its foreign policy strategies are not as linear as they might seem. Its building of foreign relations isn’t binary.
There are lobbyists who would wish South Africa to commit to exclusive friendships with some countries at the expense of others. That would be simplistic and naive.

In foreign and domestic policies, South Africa has been perceived as a fragile, vulnerable state, pursuing conflicting interests. Some have even argued its foreign policy positions on various issues — its response to Israel’s destruction of Gaza or its posture within Brics-plus countries, for example — are detrimental to its interests.

They cite grumpiness from Washington but miss the point that the US has growing commercial interests in South Africa totally unrelated to Israel. The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act trade deal that the House of Representatives has approved for extension is not a one-sided trade arrangement. America gains from it too. Since South Africa launched the genocide case at the International Court of Justice, it has attracted support from many nations without abandoning relations with those opposed to the action.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made a brave speech at the World Economic Forum about that rupture of the international system. He is now driving a diversification strategy, similar to Ramaphosa’s. Ramaphosa and Carney’s discomfort with Trump’s strategies doesn’t mean they are cutting ties with the US — they aren’t short-sighted. However, Trump is pushing them to diversify and build “insurance” of economic ties while insisting on mutually beneficial relations with the US.

Long before South Africa and Canada shot into prominence for their emerging pragmatic strategies, Turkey had been at it too. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a shining example of how to operate like a juggler. Turkey has the second-biggest army in Nato and, after Trump, Europeans rely on the Turkish army to defeat Russians in case of conflict. Yet, Turkey simultaneously helps Russian oligarchs bypass sanctions and remains a favourite destination for Russian tourists. In the meantime, Erdogan’s son-in-law sells drones to Ukraine.

The Turkish model proves that hard power and diplomatic flexibility aren’t mutually exclusive. Erdogan has positioned Turkish friendship as a stable strategic asset. He has changed the Turkish foreign policy doctrine from “Peace at Home, Peace in the World” to “Power at Home, Pragmatism in the World.” This is the “Strange Attractor” — a bridge everyone is forced to cross.

The era of predictable, linear growth is over, as is the era of linear domestic and foreign policies. We must be unapologetically pragmatic. It is time to stop fearing the chaos and start learning how to drive it. South Africa is not an NGO. It has 60-million people to feed — which is entirely possible with its resources, human capital and appropriate policies anchored on pragmatism. As Antonio Gramsci said, “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.” We have to keep our people safe from the monsters. Let’s pay attention to another Italian from the opposite perspective, Niccolò Machiavelli: “In the actions of all men, and especially of princes, one judges by the result.”

While parts globe turn into a war zone, South Africa must benefit by becoming the “Peace Land”. We should look to the historical models of Sweden and Portugal during World War 2. Both remained unapologetically pragmatic, maintaining trade with both sides while the rest of the continent burnt. Portugal was known as “The Waiting Room” of Europe — a vital neutral hub for capital, talent and diplomacy — just as Morocco served as the waiting room for the world’s elite during World War 1. By keeping every door open to every opportunity, South Africa can become the indispensable sanctuary for a polarised 21st century.

For all of that to happen, we need “CEO-type” politicians who understand that the country is a ship to be kept afloat. If Trump’s leadership style has pushed us in that direction, it might turn out to have been an unintentionally good push.

Bayoglu is MD of Menar

This opinion piece was published in the Sunday Times: https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/2026-01-31-the-jugglers-doctrine-navigating-the-time-of-monsters/